Israel has expanded its regional power substantially throughout the last year. Consequently, it has left millions of displaced people and questionable interactions with neighbors in its wake. Opportunity for this power expansion has come from the war against Hamas and widespread devastation in Gaza, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and a weakened Iran.
The consequences of Israel’s attempt to capitalize on these opportunities have extremely dangerous potential. The root of Israel’s extreme and often lawless actions stems from the lack of accountability they face from outside powers, including the US and Iran.
Iran has been a central power in the region, and its weakening has left a power vacuum for Israel to take advantage of. Iran has previously countered the Israeli agenda by funding Hezbollah, but its vulnerability has shown in Israel’s strong defense and retaliation against the Iranian-backed group.
The current ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel proves Hezbollah’s ineffectiveness. Although Iran has been a check on Israeli power previously, it no longer is. This gives Israel even more leniency to act as they wish with little consequence. Products of this freedom include land grabs in Syria, continued violations of international law, and war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
Iran’s instability has had a penumbra of effects on its neighbors, including the collapse of the Assad regime. After years of stalemate between Syrian rebel groups and the government, a rebel victory was shocking in the region.
It’s unknown whether the new Syria will seek peace with its Israeli neighbor, or prove to be more aggressive at Israel’s northern border than Assad was, especially regarding the Golan Heights. Israel previously seized the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967, and Assad made no attempt to reclaim it during his reign [1].
The new Syria is unstable and weak. Setting up shop is hard, especially since there are several fractionalized rebel groups in Syria. Syrian residents near the Golan Heights on the Israeli border claim that Israel is displacing them, and making a land grab [2]. Despite the UN’s orders to leave Syria, Israel refused.
Syria does not have the capacity to fight with Israel’s robust military, and Israel knows that. Assad was an autocrat, and brutal to his constituents. Syria is now uniquely positioned to choose democracy for its people, which is best achieved when supported by neighboring states.
This democratic responsibility lies mostly in the hands of rebel group leaders, of course, but Israel’s land grab in Syria could disrupt the state-building process. This unchecked power in the name of Israeli state security is dangerous for the future of Syria.
Israel has had relative immunity for their actions for decades. They continue to build Israeli settlements in Palestine. This is against international law, and the UN General Assembly has called on them to stop their unlawful occupation [3].
But they won’t. And they probably won’t uphold ceasefire agreements either.
This is because there are no consequences for Israel. The United States, continues to maintain a pro-Israel stance and supply them with aid and weapons, even when they ignore international condemnation of their unlawful occupation of Palestine.
Israel can keep building settlements and expanding power without consequence; why would they stop? To reign in Israel's power and protect the sovereignty of Palestine, Syria, and other neighbors, Israel must be held accountable by strong nations, including the United States.
This power expansion has not come with substantial backlash from its powerful U.S. ally, Arab neighbors, or the international community. Trump has run on a pro-Israel platform, and Biden has been hesitant at best to condemn Israeli war crimes and violations of international law. Unchecked power is dangerous, and the failure of the U.S. and other Arab nations to reign in Israel has provided them with no accountability.
The geopolitical consequences of this power expansion are dangerous, but Israel’s rampant violence in Gaza also has an extreme human cost. Israel has been accused of numerous human rights violations including the mass displacement of 1.9 million people, bombing religious spaces, starvation, bombing safe zones, and sex crimes [4].
The United States has not withheld help because of these atrocities. This conveys the message that Israel can not only expand its power regionally, but wipe out mass populations without backlash from its most powerful ally. US foreign policy has massive effects on regions, and our complacency with Israeli action further encourages their war crimes. Israel will not be accountable for these crimes, or will stop them, if no outside power substantially condemns them.
To have a peaceful Middle East, Israel has to be willing to compromise in some ways. There has to be some power-sharing in Jerusalem, as it is an indivisible issue for both Jews and Muslims. Israel must stop building settlements in Palestine, detaining Palestinians unlawfully, and reform its separation wall that makes travel and work nearly impossible for many Palestinians. There is no incentive for Israel to cooperate or negotiate, however, if no one holds them accountable.
