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Is the Decline in Minority Enrollment Post Affirmative Action Ban as Dire as Predicted?

The conversation following the Supreme Court’s decision to ban race-conscious enrollment was one of lament and fear. Some critics were worried that minority enrollment would be slashed drastically, undermining national goals to diversify elite campuses and denying opportunities to underprivileged minorities. This new class of students was the first to be admitted in absence of a race-conscious admission policy since 1978. But was there really such a dramatic dip in minority enrollment as prophesied by the ban’s anxious critics?

The overturned case of Regents of the University of California vs. Bakke ruled that, although the historic use of racial quotas was discriminatory, an “affirmative action” could be considered in determining admission. Not anymore. The 2023 decision was decided after a 6-2 vote to ban the use of race-conscious admission policies at higher education institutions.

Harvard and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the two defendants in the 2018 Supreme Court case, saw slight but nevertheless significant drops in minority enrollment, specifically Black and Hispanic students. Harvard’s Black enrollment dropped from 18% to 14%. At UNC, it fell from 10.5% to 7.8%, and Hispanic enrollment from 10.8% to 10.1% At Brown University, Black enrollment fell from 15% to 9%, and that of Hispanic students from 14% to 10%. Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s combined minority population (combining Black, Hispanic, Native American, and Pacific Islander students) dropped to 16% compared to the average of 31% over the past four years. Another campus, at the prestigious Amherst college, lost 8% of its minority students from last year’s 11%. On average, the numbers show that Black students were most affected by the ban, leading to suspicion among critics.

Despite predictions, some minority enrollment actually increased. Harvard’s Hispanic student population made an impressive jump from 14% to 16%. Its Asian American population remained at a steady 37%. At North Carolina, the percentage of students who self-identified as Asian or Asian American climbed one point from the previous year. Other esteemed and more selective Universities also experienced declines in incoming minority students.

After viewing and pondering these new statistics, critics have more to say. Some are suspicious of the rise in Hispanic and Asian students this year, after previously predicting that all minority enrollment, not just Black, would drop. This has led them to ask probing questions, accusing schools of cheating and making exceptions for certain minorities above others. Why has Asian and Hispanic enrollment remained safe and even increased after the ban, but Black enrollment has consistently declined? Could this indicate a return discrimination against Black students? This is why we needed Affirmative Action in the first place…

John McWhorter, an opinion writer for the New York Times, provides a positive perspective for those disturbed by the statistics. Instead of giving into the fear prompted by the declining numbers of Black students on elite campuses, McWhorter suggests a groundbreaking approach: gratitude. Rather than see the decline as a loss for Black and Hispanic communities, one might ponder the progress made, regardless of the dip in percentages. “We are trained to regard news on racial preferences in a way that makes us see tragedy where, through different glasses, we might just see change”, McWhorter writes in response to the outrage over numbers. Last year’s predictions were dramatic. The outcome was not. McWhorter prompts readers to imagine a campus where one in 10 freshmen is Black. That campus is Brown University. He prompts critics to pen a history book and read about the oppression and suffrage of minorities in this nation, and suddenly a 1:10 ratio on an Ivy League campus isn’t too terrible. Those suspicious of the sudden rise in Asian enrollment disregard the fact that Asians, too, are minorities. Being awarded admission into elite schools is not easy, and for the minorities (remember, these groups are a minority of the entire population), being admitted at such high numbers, even if those numbers change, should be a cause worth celebrating, not diminishing.

This year’s shift in minority enrollment statistics was not the drastic drop as prophesied. Although the percentage of Black and Hispanic enrollment has dipped slightly, it is not a sign of social regression or the return of government-led racism. All one can see from the decline is that Affirmative Action was the cause of a small percentage of minority students being admitted into college without consideration of merit. The ban has done its job which was preventing potential students from taking advantage of race-conscious policies which would aid them in taking the place of a student who had worked hard and was deserving of enrollment.