The 2024 United States presidential election is looking to be a rematch of the 2020 election. As of now, Donald Trump not only won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary by historic margins, but it seems inevitable that he’ll win more states and become the Republican nominee [1]. Although Joe Biden is one of the most unpopular presidents in modern U.S. history, there are no signs of his party looking to replace him at this time [2]. Though 2024 may see like a sequel to 2020, there is one key difference: third party candidates. The increased presence of these candidates gives Americans more options as a majority of voters do not want to see a Trump-Biden rematch, but these third parties are a long shot [3]. However, the circumstances of this election will give these third party candidates influence in American politics that has not been seen in decades.
Third Party Background
There are some notable third party candidates throughout U.S. history that heavily influenced the presidency. Theodore Roosevelt split the Republicans in 1912 and launched his own third-party candidacy, which resulted in Democrat Woodrow Wilson's presidential victory. Ross Perot in 1992 brought a populist message that many experts speculate cost George H.W. Bush a significant number of Republican votes and led Bill Clinton to win the presidency [4]. The controversial 2000 election may have had a different outcome, had third-party candidate Ralph Nader’s supporters voted for Al Gore in Florida.
In 2024, the number of third-party candidates is already large. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nephew of President John F. Kennedy and son of Bobby Kennedy, seems to be the most prominent candidate. He started running in the Democratic primary, but later switched to running as an independent. RFK Jr. currently polls at 20% as he appears to take votes from both Trump and Biden (although it is still very early in the election for polls to have any real implications) [5]. Other candidates include Colonel West and Jill Stein. Joe Machin, the senator from West Virginia, is also considering a run under No Labels Party [6].
Spoil or Spunk?
Although many have seen third parties as spoilers or wasted votes, they have a unique importance in the upcoming election. In a year where both the Republican and Democrat frontrunner candidates are unpopular to voters, these candidates give an outlet for people to express their vote against the broken two party system. It’s better to have multiple options even if those options may not lead to success. For those that feel that Donald Trump and Joe Biden clash with their morals, having these third parties give them an opportunity to be a responsible citizen and not feeling guilty about their voting decision.
For example, Biden’s support of Black voters in Georgia has dropped significantly recently. In 2020, 88% of Black voters supported Joe Biden, but current opinion polls suggest a catastrophic drop to 58% [7]. To pick-up dissatisfied black voters, RFK is holding events in Georgia, and he promises he will continue the work of his uncle in the progress of civil rights. What message does this send to Joe Biden? Will he now campaign differently if RFK Jr. becomes a significant threat to his reelection?
We are all better off with competition. In the spirit of America, there are a plethora of options which compete with each other to create higher quality products. When you get ice cream, there is more than just chocolate and vanilla. The idea of third party candidates taking votes from Donald Trump and Joe Biden will force both of them to not only compete with each other, but raise the bar in how they present their policies with voters. Even if Biden and Trump are both nominated by their respective parties, they will be held more accountable and to a higher standard since voters will now have more options.
Third parties undoubtedly act as spoilers for Republicans and Democrats, snatching valuable votes, particularly in swing states where the election is decided by the smallest of margins.However, these third party candidates also bring spunk and shake up the election by putting the GOP and Democrat candidates on their toes. In a year where a majority of Americans are not enthusiastic about a rematch of 2020, this provides voters a way to voice their discontent. There are still nine months until the general election, and anything can change. However, pay close attention to how Trump and Biden act in response to these candidates. These third parties may be the most influential in deciding where the country goes next.
