In recent months, egg prices have skyrocketed, transforming a cheap staple of the American diet into a luxury good. Prices have changed from nearly $2 a dozen in September of 2023 to over $4 in December of 2024. This surge in pricing is often attributed to inflation, a common misnomer when consumers see the cost of their goods rise. However, the real issue lies in the challenges of lowering prices amidst commodity problems like supply chain disruptions and diseases.
Since Donald Trump has moved into office there has been additional pressure on the President to deliver on his campaign promise of lowering the price of grocery goods. “When you buy eggs, they would double and triple price over a short period of time…We’re going to bring those prices way down.”
Unfortunately, the egg price issue is much more nuanced than the President understands. Before he can lower prices, he must increase production and ensure the safety of egg-laying flocks across the country.
As someone whose family has been in the egg business for decades, I am familiar with the myriad of problems egg producers face. From the devastating impact of the Avian Flu to supply chain disruptions, the rising cost of eggs is primarily driven by commodity problems rather than inflation.
What started as a wedding gift of laying hens to my great-great-grandparents turned into egg-producing facilities with several million chickens each. Over the years, the family has had its fair share of difficulties, but recently, these struggles have been exacerbated by a new strain of the Avian Flu. More commonly known as the bird flu, this virus is spread from wild birds into domestic populations.
Bird flu causes many issues with birds including a decline in egg production and death of chickens. While vaccines are available in other countries, the United States has yet to approve or institute a working vaccine to stop the spread of the current strain (H5N1) due to efficacy concerns from past vaccine failures. Additionally, current trade deals prevent the U.S. from exporting vaccinated birds, as vaccinated poultry may mask the presence of the virus, posing a risk of spreading infection through exports.
Vaccinating birds would require the U.S. to rewrite many of its trade deals to include the vaccination of birds for the H5N1 strain. This is why the current protocols for managing bird flu in egg-laying facilities involve culling–selective animal slaughter.
The United States government has yet to greenlight a bird flu vaccine, which still puts poultry in a dangerous position. To deliver on his campaign promise, the President must expedite vaccine development and work with the countries that import our chicken products to accept vaccinated poultry. Biosecurity measures in egg-producing facilities should also be given added emphasis.
Millions of chickens, especially on the West Coast, are being killed to prevent the spread of the disease. Vaccines for the current strain of the virus are not available to curb the side effects of the reduction in laying hens, ramping up prices and causing scarcity. Understanding the differences between commodity problems and inflation is crucial in analyzing the rising cost of eggs.
These issues are impacting the direct availability and cost of eggs by reducing the supply in the market and increasing production challenges.
In contrast to commodity problems, inflation is the rate at which prices for goods and services rise, reducing the purchasing power of money. It is caused by factors such as increased demand for products, higher production costs, and economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While inflation affects prices generally, the egg industry is facing issues that are described as commodity issues.
For now, the USDA and the HHS continue to work at the federal and local levels to protect unaffected birds from becoming infected. These measures include surveillance of wild bird populations, testing, and culling infected flocks. However, these methods will not be helpful in the long run.
In conclusion, the increase in egg prices is attributed to commodity problems, not inflation. Understanding this will better help the U.S. government tackle the rise in prices and should reassure consumers that there is hope for prices to come down. President Trump now holds the responsibility for fulfilling his campaign promise by expediting H5N1 vaccine development and working on our trade deals to lower the price of eggs.
As consumers, we should also strive to understand the complex factors affecting our economy rather than attributing rising prices solely to inflation. By doing so, we can better advocate for effective solutions and support policies that address the real issues at hand.
By focusing on long-term solutions and working collaboratively, we can ensure that essential goods like eggs remain affordable and accessible to all.
