The United States 2024 election is only about a month away. Polls, prediction markets, and pundits are analyzing every piece of data to predict whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected the 47th president of the United States. However, to analyze this election, it is helpful to look back at history and examine other elections to identify patterns and evidence. One election in particular that bears a strong resemblance to the 2024 election is the 1968 election. By using a historical perspective, we can predict where the 2024 election may end up by studying what happened in 1968.
What happened in 1968?
The 1968 election occurred during a turbulent and chaotic time for America. By 1968, the tensions of the 1960s were reaching their boiling point because of division over civil rights, a weak economy, major protests against the Vietnam War, and the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King Jr., and Malcolm X [1]. Richard Nixon was the Republican nominee for his third election after losing a previous bid. Nixon’s campaign largely focused on restoring law and order in response to years of chaos [2]. The incumbent president, Lyndon B. Johnson, dropped out of the race after a poor performance in the primaries that weakened his support. This, along with concerns about his health and age, led to his withdrawal [3]. Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, replaced him at the 1968 Democratic National Convention which was filled with chaos as Vietnam War protests led to major riots in Chicago. Despite coming from the same administration, Humphrey portrayed himself as the “change” candidate [4].
Sound Familiar?
If you have been following the 2024 election closely, you can almost insert different names into the events mentioned above. The past few years have been a polarizing time for the United States, with the country facing high inflation, protests over the Israel-Palestine conflict, and two assassination attempts on Donald Trump. Like Nixon, Trump is running for president a third time as the Republican nominee after losing a previous election. Trump has focused his campaign on restoring law and order, particularly around immigration, which is a top issue for many voters [5]. After a poor debate performance and growing concerns about his age, incumbent Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and his vice president, Kamala Harris, was nominated just before the convention. Harris presents herself as a “change” candidate, despite serving in the current administration.
Differences?
Some may argue that these events are not entirely comparable. For example, America isn’t directly involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict as it was with Vietnam. Although there were notable protests during the 2024 Democratic convention in Chicago, they did not escalate into major city riots or disrupt the convention as they did in 1968 [6]. Additionally, Harris quickly gained the support of a unified party, while Humphrey faced deep divisions within his [7]. Elections go beyond just history, as one must also consider polling, current data, and events unique to the present time.
Why does this comparison matter?
Despite the differences, looking at events from a historical perspective can provide valuable insights and benefits. Candidates can avoid past mistakes and Americans can be guided through challenging times. 1968 was the last time there was a major party realignment when Democrats and Republicans redefined their platforms. Perhaps 2024 will similarly reshape which groups align with the parties, which could have significant implications for the future of American elections. Polls show that traditionally strong Democratic groups, such as the white working class and some voters of color, are shifting towards Trump, while formerly reliable Republican groups, like college-educated and suburban voters, are leaning towards Harris [8].
In the 1968 election, the Republican candidate, Richard Nixon, won the Electoral College decisively but won the popular vote by less than one percentage point [9]. Does that mean that Donald Trump will win in 2024 as Nixon did in 1968? Mark Twain has said that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” [10]. Looking outside of scientific public polling and what analysts predict, the historical parallels from 1968 are hard to ignore. While history may not “rhyme” exactly, past and current events suggest the outcome of the 2024 election could be similar.
