In Frank Herbert’s Dune, the fate of empires depends on a single resource: the spice melange. Spice powers interstellar travel, extends human life, and grants extraordinary abilities. It is the most valuable substance in the Dune universe, and control of spice means control of power. Rival houses fight wars over Arrakis, the desert planet where all spice is mined, because losing access means losing political and military influence.
Our world today is not so different. Today’s “spice” is rare earth minerals. They are largely invisible to the average consumer, yet they are essential to technology, medicine, and modern warfare. Like spice, they are geographically concentrated, difficult to extract, and impossible to replace. And just as Herbert imagined brutal struggles for control of spice, nations today are locked in competition to control rare earths. Rare earths form the foundation of modern technology and military power. If the United States fails to secure them, it risks surrendering the future to China. Meeting this challenge will require bipartisan cooperation.
Rare earths were part of the logic behind Trump’s declaration that the U.S. should “annex” Greenland, a resource-rich but sparsely populated Danish territory [1]. Once overlooked, rare earths are now recognized as a crucial element in the U.S.-China trade wars and a mounting national security risk. Though the industry is valued at only $9 billion U.S.D, rare earths are indispensable to modern technology [2]. Just as oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, rare earth minerals are emerging as the hidden power source of the 21st century.
Unlike spice, rare earths are not actually rare. They are 17 metals on the periodic table that are difficult to acquire. Extracting rare earths is challenging because the metals are dispersed in low concentrations, require complex chemical separation processes, and generate large volumes of toxic and radioactive waste [3].
These minerals are everywhere: in smartphones, laptops, headphones, and EV batteries, as well as in MRI scanners and cancer radiation equipment. However, they are especially crucial to defense technology. An F-35 jet contains 900 pounds of rare earths; a submarine uses over 9,000 pounds [4]. Simply put: without rare earths, modern militaries cannot build their weapons.
That the average American is unfamiliar with rare earths is not surprising. The real danger is that policymakers underestimated them too.
Today, China controls 85% of the global supply and maintains a near monopoly over processing [2]. Even rare earths mined in the U.S. are shipped to China for refinement [1, 5]. This dominance is the product of deliberate strategy, not coincidence.
It wasn’t always this way. In the 1960s and 70s, the U.S. was the world’s largest producer of rare earths [3, 6, 7]. As the technological race accelerated in the 1980s, the U.S. was preoccupied with the Soviet Union and Europe. At the same time, strict environmental regulations, combined with high labor and processing costs, pushed companies to outsource to China [7]. Refining rare earths is dirty work; the process produces radioactive waste, toxic metals, and consumes 22 times more water and energy than mining itself [6].
Meanwhile, Beijing invested heavily in the sector. China’s abundance of deposits, low labor costs, and weak environmental standards gave it an advantage [7]. In 1987, Deng Xiaoping famously declared: “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earth” [8]. By 2000, China had become the leading extractor, refiner, and exporter of rare earths, and today holds reserves of 44 million metric tons, compared to America’s meager 1.9 million [9].
This imbalance has become a national security concern. China is ramping up weapons production at six times the pace of the United States [4]. Yet Washington depends on Beijing for the very materials that make advanced defense systems possible [5].
In response, both the Trump and Biden administrations have poured investments into alternative suppliers, especially Australian firms [2]. In March, President Trump signed an executive order guaranteeing federal purchase of U.S.-mined rare earths [10]. In July, the Department of Defense announced a $400 million investment in Mountain Pass, California, which is the only rare earth mine in the U.S. [3].
But these steps face obstacles. In response to Trump’s tariffs, China has repeatedly used its near-monopoly as leverage, imposing export restrictions that triggered production delays across the U.S. and EU [3, 11]. And while deposits exist in Idaho and Montana, it takes 15–29 years to get a new mine permitted and operational under U.S. regulations [3]. Even if America gained access to Greenland or Ukraine’s reserves, entirely new mines would still need to be built [6].
Addressing the rare earth supply challenge requires bipartisan cooperation, as it is both a national security and economic priority. The most effective policy solution would be to create ‘fast-track’ rare earth mining zones, where permits and approvals are prioritized for rapid development. Additionally, recycling rare earths from used electronics, EV batteries, and other devices should be promoted to reduce dependence on new mining and create a sustainable supply [12]. These two recommendations would allow the U.S. to expand its strategic reserves of rare earths to prepare for any potential supply disruptions in a U.S.-China confrontation.
Like spice in Dune, rare earths are not just another natural resource. They are the hidden foundation of modern power. In Herbert’s story, whoever controlled Arrakis controlled the galaxy. In our world, whoever controls rare earths will shape the balance of global security. Unless the United States overcomes its regulatory gridlock and reduces its dependence on China, it risks becoming like the houses in Dune that lost everything because they failed to see the true value of the spice.
